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[0] https://www.businessinsider.com/polymarket-paris-weather-bet...

Seasonal bets on regional weather are a way for farm and energy businesses to hedge against volatility from unusual weather.

If you're holding Florida grapefruit futures, hedging against an early freeze is an economic trade on the future value of a real thing.

[–] toss1 1 day ago

IDK of anything more backing the derivatives than the funds of the bettors, and the guy with the hot-air gun heating up the official thermometer at the Paris airport... [0]

[–] potsandpans 1 day ago

> Stocks are backed by something real (in general).

Cordially, this is kind of like saying in a discussion about mathematics, "numbers are backed by something real." And hand waving over a whole suite of objects that have no real backing at all.

Options and futures contracts have existed in some form for pretty much the entire history of commerce. The heart of the problem is that people need to be able to take risk for some endeavours, and want to have financial instruments to mitigate that risk.

In blunt terms: if it's ok for the farmer and the baker to agree on a forward futures contract for the price of wheat so they can run their business, then it should be ok for both parties to sell their contracts on the secondary market to get liquidity (e.g. a farmer is fully leveraged in seeds, has the promise to sell wheat for price x at time y, but needs cash now to fix whatever). The bank should then be able to monetize it's exposure and sell calls on the open market. At this point we're not trading on anything "real" anymore than betting whether the harvest season will be good (or bad)

That secondary market is as real as anything on kalshi. So how would you propose to craft laws to mark one as gambling and the other as investing?

Why wouldn't they be regulated any differently?

[–] enoint 18 hours ago

Well put. Comparing the CFTC and the SEC, we see equities enjoying some consumer protection. How would you answer your own question? Do under-defined bets on prediction markets necessitate a third regulator?

[–] ReflectedImage 1 day ago

For the avoidance of all doubt, gambling, crypto, stock market trading and forex are exactly the same thing.

[–] tombert 1 day ago

Even if we concede that, Kalshi and Polymarket need to be better regulated with actual laws associated with it, as opposed to the quasi-wild-west thing we have now. I will acknowledge that a lot of trading isn't significantly different than gambling, at least with trading when you do things to purposefully manipulate the market or gamble with non-public information, there's at least an SEC that can investigate, sue, and/or arrest. I'm not claiming it's perfect, but at least there's an attempt to make the markets more fair.

It doesn't really seem like Kalshi and Polymarket have nearly the same regulation. There are plenty of cases where people are purposefully betting on the market when they can easily manipulate the results, with little/no consequences.

[–] cbfrench 1 day ago

I mean, Polymarket ran this ad during the World Series that all but encouraged using the platform to trade on insider information: https://youtu.be/x6I-ZS8hZUg

I guess the thin veneer of deniability here is that the whistleblower isn’t shown actively trading on the information lol.

[–] tombert 1 day ago

Holy shit, they're not even trying to hide it. These companies suck.

> differences are blurring between gambling, stock speculation, and investing

In part, in part not. Insurance and gambling are inherently similar—they’re both negative-sum games taken alone. (Insurance can become positive sum when one considers what one is protecting.) Investing and gambling are fundamentally different—the former is a positive-sum game.

That doesn’t mean you can’t gamble in the stock-market. Options are, for a non-hedging buyer, negative sum. Someone day trading meme stocks, similarly, would be expected to lose their money in the long run. On the other side, a professional poker player may be able to play a gambling game as a non-gambler.

So no, differences aren’t blurring. But awareness is, and companies like Kalshi are predating on that.

[–] eqmvii 1 day ago

Because financial instruments like stocks are contracts entitling you to future cash flows from the legal entity that issued the stock, and federal securities laws mandate strict disclosure about that entity.

Yes, their value fluctuates on the market from lots of different factors. But the thing you're buying is very real and very well regulated compared to a prediction bet.

[–] ReflectedImage 1 day ago

"to future cash flows from the legal entity that issued the stock"

In practice, they don't work like that anymore and you get the majority of the value by buying/selling the stock to another party.

Stocks have effectively degraded into gambling style instruments.

> Stocks have effectively degraded into gambling style instruments.

That's an overbroad generalization. They can be degraded into effectively being gambling style instruments if you want, but that's NOT what they fundamentally are. Stock and commodity trading markets drive positive-sum capital formation, whereas prediction markets and sportsbooks are zero-sum synthetic side-bets.

As someone who once printed original stock certificates for the startup I co-founded in my apartment back bedroom after nervously scribbling a $10,000 personal check to open a company bank account, then years later surrendered those same sheets to an investment banker on the eve of our IPO, the distinction between investing in something I own and gambling on something I don't feels rather concrete.

[–] BobaFloutist 1 day ago

Gambling style instruments that can be trivially used in a way such that they favor the player, and offer some of the best long-term investments there are.

[–] deepsun 1 day ago

In traditional regular investment you give companies money so they can make more money off them by creating value, and also you get some control of the company.

Note that commercial companies are obliged by law to maximize shareholders value, government can punish them if they don't.

Gambling, on the other hand, only redistributes capital around, without creating any value, which would be at least benign, if it didn't _attract_ all kinds of crime: drug abuse, human trafficking, fraud and violence.

[–] tzs 1 day ago

But when I buy stock it doesn't give money to the company. It gives money to the previous stock holder that I bought the stock from. From the company's perspective all that happened is that a small share of the company has changed ownership.

[–] deepsun 1 day ago

You probably talking about publicly traded companies: If you buy stock at IPO, direct listing or any other follow-on offering -- it goes directly to the company.

And the price you pay then already accounts for your future ability to resell your stock to anyone else later, stocks would valued way less if you could only sell it back to the company.

But also don't forget that public trading is only one market, there's also a huge market for private companies stocks. Those go directly to the company for its operations.

And I also haven't touched dividends.

While some choose to engage in equity & commodity trading in a way which is like gambling, that's a secondary use of an economic exchange which still fundamentally results in the transfer of an asset tied to something other than itself.

From the days of "My six sheep for your two cows" to modern derivatives, asset trading markets are useful and necessary for economic exchange, price setting and market clearing in a way that self-referential 'poker chips' are not.

[–] Uehreka 1 day ago

> The differences are blurring between gambling, stock speculation, and investing.

That may just mean you don’t understand the regulations and legal definitions involved. Shares of stock are portions of a company entitling the owner to dividends and possibly influence over company direction. Do shares on Kalshi represent a portion of a company and entitle you to a dividend?

No. So the line remains clear: You are allowed to trade stock as long as you follow the stock trading rules. You are not allowed to trade “Kalshi market shares” unless the rules change. You can say that they should change, but there’s no confusion about what is stock and what is illegal gambling.

Kalshi could perhaps try to list their company on the stock exhange and have the market shares become actual stock somehow, but they’d quickly run afoul of the stock trading rules if they tried to give larger dividends to some shareholders than others based on which markets they’d invested in. It would become an impossible headache, which is why they won’t do it.

[–] Muromec 1 day ago

>If Kalshi is gambling, how does it differ from trading traditional financial instruments that are affected by unknown future events like Federal Reserve interest rate decisions,

Easy. Financial instruments are used to tune the resource allocation in capitalism. Gambling however is used to have fun with an idea of getting free money. As such, one is at odds with the religious beliefs based on not having fun for no good reason.

[–] Shellban 1 day ago

Well, if we are bringing religion into it, the Christians' problem with gambling mostly boils down to the medieval idea of work (an idea that itself was derived from Judaic philosophy at the time). In short, Work (an inherently good thing that even God engaged in) is about creating something of value. Money was the natural reward for what was made. Thus, commerce (at the time) was about circulating manufactured goods.

The ancient issue with gambling is that neither the gambler nor any operator is producing anything of value. With nothing to show from any party, medieval scholars would declare gambling undeserving of any financial flow. Most Christians are still (at least unconsciously) working from these principles, even if the operations of the economy has changed since then.

[–] Muromec 13 hours ago

>Most Christians are still (at least unconsciously) working from these principles, even if the operations of the economy has changed since then.

Vibes and experiences are bigger part of the economy, this is true, but gambling is rightfully in the same cathegory as alcohol, (other) drugs, porn, algorithmic social media feeds etc. Some constrains are needed for all of the above, as they all create ill effects either on a person engaging in it and often on a society at large.

I think that constrains on what kind of fun you can have is big part of what religion is useful for.

[–] miltonlost 1 day ago

The differences between "gambling on sports" and "a contract on the end results of a sports game" is the same as the difference between "driving a car" and a sovereign citizen's "traveling in a conveyance". You are playing semantic games for what are the same substance. You are conflating the issue of sports gambling (which is what the law suit is about) with interest rates and saying that it's all gambling/stock market. It's not cute or logical.

[–] whatisthiseven 1 day ago

Are you actually asking, or sea-lioning? I can't imagine anyone comparing these two whom has even a cursory understand of financial markets and gambling. Unless one has interests in gambling companies? Or do you gamble a lot and want to keep it legal? Why frame your question this way? Judge gambling on its merits, for which there clearly isn't any outside of entertainment.

Like, at least try to put effort to the comment to show you thought about it beyond the obvious propaganda of gambling companies. What, specifically, is the same? Why arent the differences important?

The apps know who the whales are. They make up 90% of their revenue. Ban them from taking money from whales, and the problem evaporates back to harmless $20 fun.

How to do this? Demand proof of income or assets and rent above $2000 in bets made in one year. Then audit these companies to ensure they are banning problem gamblers. If they are gambling or losing more than 5% of their net worth/income, that is a whale and they need to be play within their limits or get banned.

This is trivial to do, including at casinos. No one wants to do this because those companies have interests and that means their $100B+ scam industry is gone.

[–] howunfortunate 1 day ago

Having worked briefly in ads targeting, a big issue you'll face is that for every whale for whom this is a massive life problem, there's a whale who is just ~rich and this is their hobby.

I actually had a colleague who was a whale. Spent about $30k/yr on mobile games. He was staff level and made like $350k, single guy, so while it was hard for me to understand, it's also hard to say he was being duped or something. He just really liked the games, liked cosmetics, and liked to "support the devs".

These whales will be pissed if you ban them. Why should they be banned from their hobby because someone else can't be personally responsible?

> there's a whale who is just ~rich

The GP said "Demand proof of income or assets", so a 'whale' for whom $3000 a week is pocket change would still be free to squander it. There are already laws which require individual investors in private startups to show $1M in assets but online sports books and casinos are largely free to prey on gambling addicts.

These companies post little notices like "Addicted to Gambling? Click here for help" but then relentlessly optimize dark patterns in their apps to target and trigger addicts. Search and you'll find lots of documented evidence of shockingly abusive tactics.

[–] SoftTalker 1 day ago

Will never happen because state lotteries depend on whales just like all other gambling operations. You think the guy at the Quick-E-Mart buying $200 of scratch-off or Powerball tickets has enough income to call that harmless fun?

[–] tt24 1 day ago

What was the point of the first two paragraphs? Can you please edit your comment to remove them? They’re not helpful and don’t add anything to the discussion - this is not a venue through which to spread your vitriol

[–] kelipso 1 day ago

I didn’t read anything after you said sealioning but please stop accusing people of sealioning, and look up the definition while you’re at it too.

[–] xmprt 1 day ago

One is betting on downstream outcomes whereas another is betting on specific events.

[–] epolanski 1 day ago

You make an interesting point, I think it boils down to two primary distinctions:

1. Purpose: derivatives serve primarily as risk management instruments. Gambling serves pure profit and entertainment.

2. Topics: derivatives focus financial assets, commodities and economic risk. Gambling focuses on micro, generally sports, events.

Obviously you could make an argument that both instruments can be used for both purposes.

If I'm a worker at a football team who's job depends on my team qualifying to the Uefa Champions League, betting on my team not making it can be considered risk management.

In the same fashion futures on oil prices can be equally used for pure profit and entertainment purposes.

> If I'm a worker at a football team

In the large US professional sports leagues (NFL, NBA, MLB), it's not uncommon for some of the most long-term losing teams to be the most financially profitable.

In the case of the NFL, the league itself is owned equally by each of the 32 teams. They each get a 1/32nd share of league revenue regardless of win/loss. While many costs like player contracts are capped, other costs (like coach contracts) aren't. Since the majority of income is equally split, one way to max profits is to spend less than other teams where they can.

[–] howunfortunate 1 day ago

> betting on my team not making it can be considered risk management.

This is the ideal, yes. But I'd bet about 99% do the opposite and double their risk by betting on their preferred outcome.

Also, betting on something you have control over introduces perverse incentives. It's easier to sabotage an effort than make it succeed.

[–] epolanski 1 day ago

> Also, betting on something you have control over introduces perverse incentives. It's easier to sabotage an effort than make it succeed

That should be plain illegal, in the same way sportsmen are barred and punished for being anywhere near betting.

But we have politicians, their staff and administrations openly trading and betting on outcomes they can influence.

[–] mvc 1 day ago

Don't really have a stake in this argument (pardon the pun), but if you bet on the team you work for, it doesn't matter whether you bet on them or against them, it's against the rules and you'll get into big trouble (unless you own the betting company and then it's ok).

[–] rolosa 1 day ago

Don't be obtuse. Kalshi and Polymarket are 100% gambling. You don't need a PhD to see that.

[–] ericyd 1 day ago

Yes, but I interpret the comment to mean that stock trading isn't that much different

[–] twosdai 1 day ago

Both have risk associated with them yes, one has oversight from the goverment and the other is a game / world event.

With stocks if I try to do insider trading I run the risk of Jail time. Or if I try to do a Pump and Dump scheme, I go to jail. If I am an person and I "place a bet on polymarket/kalshi" and then go and influence that outcome. It may not be illegal. Since these markets commodify literally any event, its impossible to control the items themselves. So the markets need to be controlled.

[–] gwerbin 1 day ago

But oversight from the government could change tomorrow. The definition of something shouldn't hinge on what the government thinks it is. The government's definition should be based in something meaningful.

[–] nojito 1 day ago

Prediction markets are overseen by the CFTC.

Financial assets, and especially stocks, are instruments to trade something of financial value.

[–] whattheheckheck 1 day ago

You can also use the prediction markets to hedge in different channels

I could hedge it at the blackjack table too -- that doesn't make a blackjack hand a financial asset. I'm talking about whether the instrument itself is backed by something of inherent value.

You could buy a stock expecting asset appreciation, but the stock itself is a certificate of ownership in a business. Even a derivative of this, like options trading, is a contract to buy or sell or deliver said certificate of ownership in a business. Ultimately it is backed by something of tangible value.

"Predictions markets" are all of the mechanics of trading, but without any underlying value. It is literally gambling wearing Groucho glasses. The bet is simply for the sake of the bet.

[–] viccis 1 day ago

Stock trading isn't gambling. It's just owning assets that can change in value. Options trading is much closer to gambling, and I would say the biggest difference between it and Kalshi and similar gambling companies is that it's much more rigorously (if nowhere near perfectly) regulated.

[–] ReflectedImage 1 day ago

Stock trading has become gambling in the last 3 decades.

There is now effectively little to no difference.

[–] viccis 3 minutes ago

That's like saying real estate is gambling. It's a fatuous equivocation.

[–] nadermx 1 day ago

What are the odds they win vs lose?

[1] https://www.ft.com/content/f70147b1-ee77-4d75-8587-707a49ddb...

“Donald Trump Jr was handed about $300,000 worth of equity in Kalshi after joining the prediction market platform as a strategic adviser in early 2025” [1].

If you’re in a state with a Democrat AG which is also pursuing Kalshi in court, look up your state’s bribery laws and see if your AG can open an investigation into criminal conduct under state law.

[–] 0xy 1 day ago

Unfortunately this is routine and common. The Biden family received over a million dollars from Chinese state energy company State Energy HK, among other conflicts of interest.

This stuff goes back decades, and I suspect both parties look the other way because when they get in power they're doing the exact same thing.

[–] tzs 1 day ago

> The Biden family received over a million dollars from Chinese state energy company State Energy HK

...at a time when no Biden family member held elected office or was running for elected office and no Biden family member worked for the federal government.

Are you seriously going to compare that to things the Trump family does while Trump is President?!

If their lawyers are at all competent, they structured it so it's not illegal (though it's pretty obviously adjacent to bribery). With both houses of Congress turning blue, I 'predict' they'll dump Don Jr by the end of January to claw back the remaining unvested equity.

Hey, maybe we can get that listed as a bet!

> they structured it so it's not illegal (though it's pretty obviously adjacent to bribery)

Maybe. One usually can't structure around criminal law. If they managed to, somehow, the Congress needs to investigate to amend the law to ensure you can't structure around obvious bribery.

Either way, a criminal investigation by the states is warranted.

> One usually can't structure around criminal law.

I don't see how that applies in this context which is pretty simple. The transaction with Don Jr. was a board advisory role in exchange for equity. Broadly, bribery is "paying to influence the actions or decisions of a public official." Don Jr. isn't an official. He signed a contract to provide board advisory services. The contract wouldn't say anything about anything else. I've been a board advisor and signed a similar contract (if not the same one, they're quite pro forma).

Absent a secret recording establishing payment for influence, there's nothing to prove bribery. Do I think making him an advisor was done in the hope it would influence his father to promote and sign favorable legislation? Yep. Do I think there's any chance evidence exists to prosecute that? Nope.

A Democrat controlled congressional committee can certainly issue subpoenas, have a public hearing and ask Don Jr and/or the company CEO a bunch of leading questions - and all the answers will deny any quid pro quo or wrongdoing. Personally, I think the companies probably knew giving Don Jr. a bunch of money wasn't a very reliable way to ensure Trump's cooperation. It's quite clear that Trump demands loyalty from all but gives none in return. I think their main bet was that hiring Don Jr. would cause potential investors and business partners to infer the company had lower regulatory risk, making the net cost of investment capital lower. Dumb, but that stuff actually works to some extent.

[1] https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/nadine-menendez-sentenc...

> bribery is "paying to influence the actions or decisions of a public official." Don Jr. isn't an official

Nadine Menendez wasn't an official. She still went to jail for corruption [1].

> Absent a secret recording establishing payment for influence, there's nothing to prove bribery

Or a text. Or demonstration of policy moves by the Trump administration that benefited Kalshi.

Even if the criminal investigation doesn't yield proof beyond reasonable doubt, it could then be turned into a civil case against Kalshi's officers and Don Jr.

> Democrat controlled congressional committee

Sure. It should also be pursued by state AGs. Trump can't pardon a state conviction.

[–] bennettnate5 1 day ago

I've seen plenty of lawsuits and dirt specifically on Kalshi, but have yet to see one on Polymarket. Is there anything specific states have against Kalshi over other prediction markets, or are they just the first/most prominent of what will be a wave of lawsuits against these kinds of companies generally?

[–] dogmayor 1 day ago

In some cases, Kalshi brought the lawsuit against the state(s). Others, where the state(s) initiated the action, name Kalshi and not Polymarket because only Kalshi is operating (legally) in US. Polymarket doesn't offer as many markets on its US-facing entity as it does on its main international site, and not exactly sure but I believe they have not included many of the markets on their US site that are causing Kalshi issues here.

The main thing getting Kalshi all the attention from the states is their sports gambling markets. Not sure if polymarket offers those to US.

> The main thing getting Kalshi all the attention from the states is their sports gambling markets.

There are 3 separate reasons WHY states are so strongly opposing Kalshi's sports gambling: 1) Kalshi is doing it in a way that avoids state taxation, licensing and regulation, 2) the online sports gambling companies spending billions on TV commercials don't want untaxed, unregulated competition, 3) The major sports leagues are concerned it will undermine the integrity of the 'product'.

Of course, there's no material difference in actual harm to the public between Kalshi sports betting and Online Sportsbook Apps, they both enable gambling addicts, cheating, etc. The hardball reaction is about ensuring Kalshi sends tax, licensing and lobbying money to each state government. The sportsbooks have spent billions ramming gambling legalization through and don't want Kalshi getting a 'free ride' on the bus they paid for.

Even the sports league's opposition isn't as pure as it appears. While they don't want players, coaches or referees to undermine game outcomes, they also sell exclusive access to real-time on-field data feeds to sportsbooks for hundreds of millions of dollars. The TV feeds we watch at home are ~8 to 15 seconds delayed. Getting the real-time outcome data from every pass, kick and run in 800ms vs ~8s on TV is worth hundreds of millions to online sports apps because it lets them front-run real-time bets. When people at home make real-time prop bets on the next play, many times the company already knows the outcome. Something to remember next you hit "Bet" on a real-time prop and get a spinner saying "odds updating" and then "bet expired". It might be because your bet was going to win, while if you'd taken the other side, it would have accepted the bet and taken your money. Yeah, that's against the law in a casino but not in an online sports app. Right now, those apps being "Regulated", mostly means they're paying taxes, licensing fees and following "Know Your Customer" policies to minimize money laundering and minors gambling. Actual fairness of the bets doesn't enter into it any more than carny midway games. Consumer bettor's job is to consistently lose, while only winning a little back often enough to bias selective memory and keep them interested. Anyone who actually wins too often on bets that are too big, quickly gets their acct capped to $1 bets.

[–] dogmayor 1 day ago

Right, kalshi (and the cftc) wants the cftc to be its regulator bc of the current corrupt administration. The states are saying no we have the power to regulate gaming and prediction markets qualify as such.

[–] ronsor 1 day ago

Polymarket didn't serve the US last I checked, unless they've changed recently.

[–] xenadu02 1 day ago

Polymarket does. In the US they are a registered CFTC exchange for trading event contracts. That gives them some degree of protection from state actors. It also increases the odds that if you make money you'll actually be able to withdraw it unlike many of these markets. They also operate in actual dollars not make up crypto tokens.

Note that Polymarket's non-US business is crypto blockchain whatever so ... good luck with that. The ability to get your money out could disappear at any time and as far as I know there's no recourse if they just decide to screw you over. Not that CFTC is super effective but it is something.

> In the US they are a registered CFTC exchange for trading event contracts. That gives them some degree of protection from state actors

So is Kalshi. The entire question is how the CFTC made up the authority to regulate gambling out of statute that only ever mentions exempted commodities.

[–] bennettnate5 1 day ago

Ah, makes sense. I've never bothered looking into using either so I wasn't aware of that.

[–] NoahZuniga 1 day ago

They do: polymarket.us

[–] xvector 1 day ago

They do nothing to block US people from signing up to polymarket.com, the block is a farce

[–] LordDragonfang 1 day ago

I think it might have something to do with the fact that Kalshi is aggressively running ads targeting young men to get them into sports gambling, and Polymarket isn't. (I've never seen them, but my less-technical brother claims he sees them all the time on tiktok and they're particularly sleazy).

Also, more to the point, Polymarket actually does have at least three active lawsuits against it.

edit: looks like this has something to do with it:

> Kalshi has been a CFTC-regulated exchange since 2020. Polymarket exited the US in 2022 after settling charges with the CFTC, and only came back after buying QCEX, a CFTC-licensed exchange, in late 2025.

[–] wood_spirit 1 day ago

Yes it’s strange, both have hired Donald Trump Jr. as advisor. You’d think they’d both be safe.

[–] DivingForGold 1 day ago

The Supreme Court of The US has the final say on this.

[–] ares623 1 day ago

The ultimate bet

[–] hnav 1 day ago

Ironically couldn't find a market for it on either kalshi or polymarket

[–] dogmayor 1 day ago

Matt Levine wrote about this very thing in a recent Money Stuff (October 12):

"Kalshi gaming regulation

You know what's funny? There is a real legal dispute about whether Kalshi and other prediction markets should be allowed to offer sports bets without complying with state gaming laws. Kalshi and the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission take the view that (1) Kalshi is federally regulated by the CFTC, (2) sports bets are "swaps" under federal regulation, (3) federal regulation preempts state gaming regulation, so (4) buzz off, states. Many states disagree, and there has been litigation around the country. (We have talked about this several times.)

Two federal appellate courts have sided with the states, but another has sided with Kalshi. The state that lost that last case (New Jersey) is asking the Supreme Court to review it, and last week 39 states filed a brief supporting New Jersey's request. So did the National Football League. I assume that the Supreme Court will take the case. I have no idea what it will decide. I think this is a tough question, courts have disagreed on the answer, it is all pretty politically charged, the Supreme Court can kind of do whatever it wants, and I have no real model of what it will want. I could not tell you the probability that Kalshi will win and get to continue offering sports bets.

So, out of muscle memory, I fire up Kalshi to check that probability. "Supreme Court Will Rule Kalshi Sports Bets Are Legal, Yes/No," where is it? But Kalshi doesn't list that contract![1] Here's "A Kalshi Contract on the Legality of Kalshi Contracts," by Joseph Grundfest:

'This note proposes that Kalshi list a "Kalshi Sports Legality" contract indexed to the outcome of United States Supreme Court litigation addressing whether Kalshi's sports-indexed contracts are federally regulated in a manner that preempts state law. Kalshi has previously listed at least 16 contracts indexed to Supreme Court determinations. No rule or regulation prevents Kalshi from listing the proposed contract. The proposed contract would provide a market estimate of the probability that the Supreme Court rules that Kalshi's sports-indexed contracts are legal. The contract would thereby create valuable hedging opportunities for Kalshi investors. It would also create hedging value for Kalshi customers who might lose access to Kalshi markets. These hedging rationales are more substantial than rationales Kalshi presents to support other Kalshi contracts, such as contracts indexed to parlays or to specific in-game events, such as whether the first play in a football game leads to a touchdown.'

I mean, sure, of course. You and I and Joseph Grundfest can propose sarcastic Kalshi event contracts, but Kalshi doesn't have to list them. Hypotheticals!

If Kalshi listed this contract, and it traded in reasonable volume and showed a [90%][10%] probability of Kalshi winning, would that make it [more][less] likely that Kalshi actually would win? Would the prediction market implied probability affect the outcome? Would talented appellate lawyers look at the market and think "oh Kalshi is definitely going to [win][lose], so I should join [their][the other] legal team"? Would the Supreme Court justices, or their clerks, look at this market and think "ah, the smart money is that Kalshi will [win][lose], so that's probably right?" People have concerns like this about prediction markets on elections: A prediction market showing one candidate winning might drive money and attention and support to that candidate and become self-fulfilling. And here is a Wall Street Journal article about the effects of prediction markets on juries: "If millions are wagered on the belief that a defendant will be acquitted," it asks, "could that make a jury more reluctant to convict?" I don't think that the Supreme Court exactly works like that, but on the other hand the Supreme Court, like an election or a jury, is a mechanism for aggregating the votes of several humans, so maybe it works a little like that. If it did work like that, and it showed a 10% probability of Kalshi winning, would Kalshi delist the contract? (Does the lack of this contract suggest something about its expected probability?)

If it did work like that, and it showed a 10% probability of Kalshi winning, could Kalshi, you know, buy a bunch of this contract and push its probability up?

All that aside, if Kalshi listed this contract, could it hedge its sports gambling risk by betting against itself on its own market? Discuss!"

No, the Congress does.

[–] HDThoreaun 1 day ago

No, the supreme court. End of the day this is a commerce clause question. Good chance even if congress fully legalizes all this supreme court could over rule that.

> End of the day this is a commerce clause question

It really isn’t. Nobody is challenging the federal government’s authority in the matter. Just whether the CFTC is reading statute correctly.

The Congress could choose to regulate or legalize prediction markets. It hasn’t. It created laws for exempted commodities with Dodd-Frank and the CFTC and Trump sort of ran with that.

[–] paxy 1 day ago

The Supreme Court has no say over a state choosing to ban gambling.

[–] 15155 1 day ago

What is the Supremacy Clause?

[–] jf 1 day ago

What is stare decisis?

[–] 15155 1 day ago

An invented doctrine not codified anywhere in written law.

Which decision is relevant?

[–] nojito 1 day ago

The case would be on CFTC authority vs state authority.

You’d be hard pressed to argue that states should be individually able to control futures trading

You’d be similarly hard pressed to read the CFTC magicking gambling authority as anything but a major question.

I do agree that prediction markets are BS gambling pretending to be something else.

But factually, SCOTUS does have authority over the application of the supremacy clause. At some point they will send federal agents in and enforce it themselves.

[–] VanTheBrand 1 day ago

Except that the Supreme Court does have a say over whether or not the Supreme Court has a say over a state choosing to ban gambling.

[–] greeneggs 1 day ago

According to the article, Kalshi paid Trump a $3 million bribe. Do we have any idea what bribes the Republican Supreme Court Justices have taken from Kalshi?

[–] mcmcmc 1 day ago

Great, the most corrupt court ever.

[–] not_a_bot_4sho 1 day ago

Samuel Chase has entered the chat

[–] nazgulsenpai 1 day ago

I'm against government regulation of gambling in principle but in reality, they have an uphill battle trying to convince any reasonable person that 'its platform offers “swaps” that can only be regulated by the US Commodity Futures Exchange (CFTC)'.

[–] BobaFloutist 1 day ago

Do you think that a state government shouldn't be permitted to regulate gambling, or do you prefer a state government that chooses not to?

I ask because there are issues where I have an opinion, but I think the "marketplace of ideas" is a reasonable solution, and there are issues where I'm a strong enough proponent of my opinion that I would prefer to live in a world where it is federal (or even global) law.

[–] cestith 1 day ago

These betting marketplaces that take any proposition are either dealing in gambling or futures and derivatives trading. So if they don't fall under gambling laws and regulations, they can deal with the SEC digging into their businesses instead. They might want to pick their battles.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/cryptocurrencies/bitcoin/bi...

CFTC, which isn’t as heavy handed as the SEC even under democrats

SEC is down for whatever right now too by the way

[–] Analemma_ 1 day ago

> CFTC, which isn’t as heavy handed as the SEC even under democrats

In ordinary times when the CFTC is just regulating things like pork belly futures, sure. But crypto and sports gambling are extremely politicized and red-coded now; Kalshi shouldn't expect the same sleepy regulation for them as for ordinary commodities.

Honestly I don't see their endgame. Even if they win these cases in court and fall under CFTC jurisdiction, that only matters if they have friendlies in the White House and the next administration will have knives out for them.

[–] joshheitzman 1 day ago

There is a bitcoin futures contract on the CME and its been there since 2017.

https://www.fxcm.com/markets/insights/bitcoin-futures-produc...

do business as long as possible and adapt to the next strongman, like in every other country?

nobody in business cares that the people are married to “due process” to respect the edicts, versus some other governance structure. just delay and adapt is the whole game. the corporation is a conduit to flow revenue to board, executives and functionally shareholders (but dividends are now uncommon). The corporation can become a husk if it fails to adapt and that wont be the current people’s problem if they have extracted substantial wealth out before then

[–] acdevlin42 1 day ago

I mean, prediction markets are gambling by all accounts, so this should have been expected no? On a personal level I'm really hoping this is the end of the massive rise in "swaps" over the last few years since it's been an obnoxious trend.

Ninth circuit case, second circuit case, and third circuit case are all different outcomes because they are judging state laws in federal courts, different states within their respective circuit

I think Nevada’s and Arkansas was also mentioned - I guess Arkansas is in the fifth circuit - those are more comprehensive and broad than New Jersey’s in the third circuit

Ultimately I expect Kalshi will have the swaps treatment reaffirmed, and the supremacy clause will override most of the state laws

But for Nevada and Arkansas residents it will be unworkable, and they will just block some forms of bets for residents in those states

Unless Congress now acts

perhaps, enough people are annoyed at the distortion to sports advertising and their friend’s behaviors that they could get some republican senators support for the 60 vote threshold

otherwise Democrats are still without power to unilaterally pass laws

have there been any proposals to deal with this? bills that didnt make it out of committee?

something as simple as adding some contracts to the ban in the onion futures act I think is a mistake

Some of the states that have issues with Kalshi are red, e.g Utah. There’s a serious states rights issue here as well.

[–] 15155 1 day ago

> There’s a serious states rights issue here as well.

Of all of the ridiculous things that qualify as interstate commerce: prediction, futures, and derivatives markets are squarely within the definition.

I don’t think anyone is seriously contesting the Congress’s power to regulate prediction markets. The question is whether it has.

The CFTC relied on rules about exempted commodities to grant itself the power to license the likes of Kalshi. The question is whether that’s a major question.

Yeah, and gambling has a clear precedent for state (and tribal) right to regulate.

The question at hand here isn’t either of our points. The question is whether or not prediction markets are gambling with lipstick on.

when there is a conflict of laws, federal law reigns supreme, thats the Supremacy Clause

when federal law is completely absent, states have the right to behave however they want, thats the 10th amendment

federal law is not absent, state laws are curbed, in its simplest interpretation

[–] 15155 1 day ago

Why do the same five people end up at the World Series of Poker final table every year?

[–] krapp 1 day ago

The only things that should qualify as interstate commerce are physical goods being transported between states, over land or water.

If we're stuck with endemic gun violence because of an 18th century definition of "well regulated militia" then there's no way a purely online marketplace counts as interstate commerce. How do you fit that on a horse, exactly?

[–] 15155 1 day ago

> interstate commerce are physical goods being transported between states, over land or water

Okay, so digital marketplaces aren't interstate commerce? Try again. Insurance markets? In what reality is "commerce" defined as exclusively-physical goods?

> well regulated militia

Anyone that spouts this immediately signals their lack of English knowledge, law insight, etc. Even RBG didn't attempt this argument because it's literally, obviously invalid.