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points by mrandish 1 day ago | 0 comments
If their lawyers are at all competent, they structured it so it's not illegal (though it's pretty obviously adjacent to bribery). With both houses of Congress turning blue, I 'predict' they'll dump Don Jr by the end of January to claw back the remaining unvested equity.

Hey, maybe we can get that listed as a bet!

[–] JumpCrisscross 1 day ago
> they structured it so it's not illegal (though it's pretty obviously adjacent to bribery)

Maybe. One usually can't structure around criminal law. If they managed to, somehow, the Congress needs to investigate to amend the law to ensure you can't structure around obvious bribery.

Either way, a criminal investigation by the states is warranted.

[–] mrandish 1 day ago
> One usually can't structure around criminal law.

I don't see how that applies in this context which is pretty simple. The transaction with Don Jr. was a board advisory role in exchange for equity. Broadly, bribery is "paying to influence the actions or decisions of a public official." Don Jr. isn't an official. He signed a contract to provide board advisory services. The contract wouldn't say anything about anything else. I've been a board advisor and signed a similar contract (if not the same one, they're quite pro forma).

Absent a secret recording establishing payment for influence, there's nothing to prove bribery. Do I think making him an advisor was done in the hope it would influence his father to promote and sign favorable legislation? Yep. Do I think there's any chance evidence exists to prosecute that? Nope.

A Democrat controlled congressional committee can certainly issue subpoenas, have a public hearing and ask Don Jr and/or the company CEO a bunch of leading questions - and all the answers will deny any quid pro quo or wrongdoing. Personally, I think the companies probably knew giving Don Jr. a bunch of money wasn't a very reliable way to ensure Trump's cooperation. It's quite clear that Trump demands loyalty from all but gives none in return. I think their main bet was that hiring Don Jr. would cause potential investors and business partners to infer the company had lower regulatory risk, making the net cost of investment capital lower. Dumb, but that stuff actually works to some extent.

[–] JumpCrisscross 1 day ago
> bribery is "paying to influence the actions or decisions of a public official." Don Jr. isn't an official

Nadine Menendez wasn't an official. She still went to jail for corruption [1].

> Absent a secret recording establishing payment for influence, there's nothing to prove bribery

Or a text. Or demonstration of policy moves by the Trump administration that benefited Kalshi.

Even if the criminal investigation doesn't yield proof beyond reasonable doubt, it could then be turned into a civil case against Kalshi's officers and Don Jr.

> Democrat controlled congressional committee

Sure. It should also be pursued by state AGs. Trump can't pardon a state conviction.

[1] https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/nadine-menendez-sentenc...