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points by K0balt 4 days ago | 0 comments
Wtf. Are we actually seeing a push towards being 100percent dependent on the cloud?

Sovereign AI has never been more important.

Controlling AI is so much more powerful and impactful than controlling search or social algorithms.

Centralized AI a 10x on social control over everything we have seen before, and there is no way that a free and open society survives contact with centralised, high capability AI if the system is manipulated towards guiding outcomes. It’s essentially mind control, as people will offload an even greater share of their cognition to AI than they do with search and social.

Build and maintain sovereign AI while you still can.

[–] GuB-42 4 days ago
No, we are just seeing a push towards Nvidia wanting to make money.

Nothing stops you from giving Nvidia half a million for their latest and greatest AI GPUs, unless you are in China I guess, but China does very well despite the export control.

It is just classic market segmentation, the thing Nvidia and just about every company that can benefit from it has done for decades. Cloud providers are ready to pay a lot of money, consumers wanting local AI have a lower budget, and gamers even lower. But a low budget is greater than zero, and there is still money to be made on these markets. But they also don't want to compete against themselves, so they are going to find ways of crippling enterprise-class workloads on consumer hardware.

It used to be that they crippled high precision arithmetic on consumer hardware, because it was a differentiating factor, but AI doesn't care about high precision, so now, it is something else.

[–] Schlagbohrer 4 days ago
I can't wait until we have real competition against NVIDIA, whether it is from a Chinese chip maker or someone else. Hopefully then these kinds of intentional crippling of hardware/firmware will be avoidable by buying an equivalent product from another firm.
[–] FuriouslyAdrift 3 days ago
AMD has been #1 for HPC and #2 in AI for a very long while. The currently shipping Helios systems go toe to toe with nVidia's next gen that aren't even shipping, yet (by nVidias own numbers).

These are multi-million dollar datacenter systems, not consumer. If you mean the consumer market, it's coming but it's going to be 2028-29 most likely (if the bubbled hasn't popped by then).

Strix Point is quite good but not the same thing as a DGX, though. Same idea, different methodology.

[–] smallmancontrov 3 days ago
AMD's "datacenter HPC without consumer HPC" strategy was one of the biggest corporate whiffs in history. If AMD had taken consumer GPGPU seriously at any point in the decade leading up to LLM takeoff, they wouldn't have had to stand on the sidelines for years as NVDA charged 80% margin on matrix multiplication. They could have had 1/2 or even 1/1 market cap compared to NVDA. Instead, they have a tenth, and even that's largely grace in the forward looking estimations.
[–] Fr0styMatt88 3 days ago
Haha that’s been the AMD story when it comes to graphics in general.

I miss the old days when they released enthusiast products like the R9 295X2. Though that’s just the gaming enthusiast market in general declining (not that this happened organically though, it feels like a deliberate choice).

[–] SR2Z 3 days ago
Ha! That was certainly a card you had to be an enthusiast to put up with, with its 500W TDP :)

I have many pleasant memories of keeping myself warm just by opening Witcher 3 on my R9 390.

[–] FuriouslyAdrift 3 days ago
It's less AMD not doing commercial GPGPU than nVidia completely staying out of the PC and server market. Remember AMD competes with both of them (nVidia and Intel) and is smaller than both.

AMDs revenue this quarter just passed Intels for the first time in history and they still are dominating in the HPC market which is fairly immune to the AI bubble (while also selling everything they can build at a high premium to AI datacenters).

AMDs margins on their Instinct datacenter GPUs is nearly as good as nVidia's. They just can't get contract volume at TSMC to make more because nVidia buys all of it.

[–] podocarp 4 days ago
Even for things like the huawei ascend, what makes them crap for price to perf I think is still dram. They actually cost more than nvidia clusters last I checked. Just like how regular laptops and phones are now being squeezed upwards to become closer (and uncompetitive with) apple devices.
[–] tiahura 3 days ago
China is never going to let anyone under its control _release_ AI that is capable of disrupting world order.
[–] sidewndr46 4 days ago
Given the history of prohibition in the past few centuries, it wouldn't surprise me if it is much easier to buy Nvidia products in China than in the US. The price is much higher most likely, but the actual transaction is likely easier.
[–] smolder 3 days ago
In China, you can give them a 4090 and have its ram doubled to 48GB with some soldering and custom firmware, so yeah, pretty much.
[–] embedding-shape 4 days ago
Unless the US somehow differs from the EU in some major ways, can't you just walk into a store and buy a NVIDIA GPU? Not sure how much easier it can get. And yes, it's as easy in China too, walk into store, point at GPU, fork over the money, you get your GPU. Like everywhere else, except the US I suppose?
[–] CamperBob2 3 days ago
Yes and no. Yes, you can still buy high-end prosumer Blackwell hardware at retail in the US, but not without going through a KYC process that didn't exist a couple of months ago. The writing is on the proverbial wall.
[–] giwook 3 days ago
> but China does very well despite the export control

They're still getting plenty of Nvidia GPUs. Someone in Jensen Huang's inner circle apparently runs a number of companies in Singapore that have been found to source GPUs at scale. The catch is that she has close ties to Beijing and is suspected of working closely with their government, potentially even spying for them.

This was reported just a week or two ago and is just one example of how China is still getting their hands on resources they're supposedly unable to get.

[–] zelphirkalt 3 days ago
There are so many ways trade goes in and out of China, and so many trading partners, I think it is next to impossible to prevent them from getting what they want, if they are willing to spend the money.
[–] InsidiousWombat 4 days ago
NVIDIA probably already figured out that local will be massive part and are preparing to do DRM for AI.

Pay up for license to unlock full capacity, pay up for license to use encrypted models from AI moguls, paid per billion tokens processed or just operations in GPU

[–] bayindirh 3 days ago
It's not their first rodeo. Their cards already need to authenticate with the driver to enable the card completely. When I last checked, Nouveau driver has received a key which only enabled the hardware, allowing enough features to see a desktop and install closed NVIDIA drivers, nothing more.

Remember, the kernel module is open source, but rest of the driver is closed source, and any kernel level code which can't be open sourced but had to be is moved to card firmware. Only the kernel module is open source. Not the libraries, not the driver, nothing else.

NVIDIA is holding to its pearls like a sloth holding to its branch, because their all business model and livelihood is dependent on that control. I still commend AMD's decision to allow full card enablement with any driver which talks the correct language.

[–] iamnothere 3 days ago
This is exactly it, they have stated that they are planning to introduce licensing and subscriptions for server farms: https://www.pcguide.com/news/nvidia-reportedly-planning-annu...
[–] hhh 4 days ago
There is already DRM for AI. check out nvidia’s docs around hosting proprietary models with encrypted weights
[–] novaRom 4 days ago
Interestingly it is Microsoft who filed a patent for DRM-style locking of AI models to verified devices (published July 2026): https://patentlyze.com/patent/microsoft-drm-ai-models-explai...
[–] skew-aberration 4 days ago
So they can avoid the embarrassment when Copilot migrates to Qwen 4
[–] bayindirh 3 days ago
That's older than current AI/LLM/NVIDIA wave. Many application specific DSPs probably carry their model weights in an encrypted manner. If not, we would have seen the extremely performant face recognition and tracking models extracted from professional cameras already.

Note, these models generally run 60/120/240 FPS depending on the camera range, and can command the connected lenses at ~100FPS (because physics).

[–] jval43 4 days ago
AI is actually the perfect use case for homomorphic encryption.

I wonder if this space is explored fully enough at the moment.

Aside from some implementation details, it's conceptually much easier than doing it for a SQL database.

[–] AlAjem 4 days ago
I don't see the case for DRM protected local models on either side.

The consumer has access to free and open models for local use.

The supplier has better control and wider market to serve running the models in data centers.

Only way I can see encrypted models being widespread is if they are bundled as part of a software package (OS/Browser/etc) and not sold as the product.

[–] petu 4 days ago
There's good open weight models for now, labs could stop releasing them for whatever reason (assuming "good model" is a moving target).
[–] bri3d 3 days ago
There are plenty of both transformer and non-LLM "edge" models that aren't free and open - think anything that ships in consumer electronics. Vendors usually want this IP protected.

And, the same GPUs are run in datacenter, where there's a big insider risk that vendors want to mitigate with encrypted models (if you're Anthropic and you want AWS to host your models, you don't want 5000 or even 500 or even 50 AWS employees with access to your highly valuable/desirable model weights).

[–] sva_ 4 days ago
It wouldn't work on windows either, if that were the case. It sounds more like it hasn't been properly implemented yet
[–] selicos 3 days ago
Like locking features behind a pro card ex transcoding media (historically).

There will be ways for them to segment the market and make their money. Maybe not 100x stock in 5 years but money all the same.

[–] Geof25 4 days ago
Is DRM going to work considering how good LLMs are in reverse engineering? I would say it is a fools errand at this point.
[–] ReptileMan 4 days ago
Or buy Huawei ascend...
[–] motbus3 4 days ago
Years ago I would think I was being paranoid to think they would patch hardware retroactively to make it slower so you need to pay more to use your own hardware. In 2026, I think this is what all car companies are doing after you pay the full car price. I don't see a reason why they wouldn't do it with so little competition
[–] somat 4 days ago
It smells like something IBM would do. Coming from small computers where you own it, I was flabbergasted to learn that IBM would ship additional processors and ram with their mainframes but you were not allowed to use them until you paid the additional license fee.

So it is something that has been done for a long time now. Still feels like unethical rent-seeking that should not be tolerated by the customer.

See Also: car companies that charge additional fees for hardware already on the car. Additional services, I sort of understand(remote start via cell network), but stuff like heated seats, that is just wrong.

[–] esseph 4 days ago
Isn't this something apple has been in legal trouble over?

Yep, "Batterygate"

https://www.npr.org/2020/11/18/936268845/apple-agrees-to-pay...

[–] motbus3 4 days ago
Tesla does the same and I am not sure but someone told me Chevrolet and Audi have same "solutions" in place
[–] mschuster91 4 days ago
> See Also: car companies that charge additional fees for hardware already on the car. Additional services, I sort of understand(remote start via cell network), but stuff like heated seats, that is just wrong.

It saves the car manufacturer on logistics cost. The per-unit cost of a seat heater is (much) smaller than the cost related to keeping two variants of seat in stock and to provide spare parts. Say the heating mat costs 100€ per seat including materials and installation, and can be sold to the customer for 400€ permanent, that means as long as 1 in 4 customers buys the seat heating option, the books are balanced, and all money you save on logistics is pure profit.

Adding subscription on top of that is financially even better, if there is one thing companies LOVE thanks to stonk market incentives it is monthly recurring revenue.

[–] motbus3 4 days ago
You are absolutely right! (Couldn't resist the ai pun)

I think more than that, it is probably a lie they tell us that you are not paying for the hardware/equipment.

[–] somat 3 days ago
It's slimy as hell, A person buys a thing, they now own it. However there is a locked box, with no key. The manufacture sells the key to this box for an additional fee. To unlock a thing they already own.

Yeah, Nothing morally wrong there.

[–] podocarp 4 days ago
Databases licencing per core is the most ridiculous thing I've heard for me. In this case they have zero marginal cost and still charge you for it. Hilarious.
[–] graemep 3 days ago
> In this case they have zero marginal cost and still charge you for it.

A license has zero marginal cost in the first place. Software distribution over networks have a negligible marginal cost. An ebook as zero margin cost. We are constantly paying lots of things with zero or negligible marginal cost.

[–] xhkkffbf 3 days ago
These deals aren't as slimy as they look. Yes, there's no marginal cost, but the goal is to spread out the costs as evenly as possible with the companies using the software. Setting the price per core just means that the companies that might do more processing shoulder more of the software cost. (And, yes, it's another way to gouge companies. But it's gouging based on use.)
[–] graemep 3 days ago
Not necessarily slimy. The problem is that there is no clear right pricing where there is no marginal cost - makes it hard to decide whether the pricing if fair or not.
[–] SoftTalker 3 days ago
It is a case of pricing based on the value provided, not the cost of the goods. Same way we are always told to price ourselves as developers really.
[–] boltzmann64 4 days ago
The reason why open source couldn't win search and social was because they need network effects which is not possible for open source maintainers.

AI is a software just like operating systems and executables where open source absolutely dominates the industry. Remember when the compiler engineers optimized the shit out of llama.cpp.

Right now the bottleneck for AI software is compute and data. Moore's law is give us compute, StackOverflow, arXiv (and it's children like bioRxiv), gutenberg and others (3lib, anna, internet.org) will give us data.

It's a waiting game. Open source always wins.

[–] torben-friis 4 days ago
>Right now the bottleneck for AI software is compute and data. Moore's law is give us compute, StackOverflow, arXiv (and it's children like bioRxiv), gutenberg and others (3lib, anna, internet.org) will give us data.

Tons of stuff happenning behind closed doors today though. No more stackoverflow for the next decade, that could create a problem if all new context only exists in chatgpt conversations only openAI has access to (or whoever).

[–] Helmut10001 4 days ago
Wait until the archives are compromised and millions of people's conversation and uploaded data are published. Such context was never before accessible in that scale, but it will become accessible soon, I am pretty sure.
[–] oblio 3 days ago
> It's a waiting game. Open source always wins.

Based on... what? Thoughts and prayers? Feelings? Vibes?

I don't know if you looked around but open source is basically unusable for the largest platform in the world, mobile.

The next platform, whatever that is, will also be closed source (maybe VR, once it finally matures...).

LLMs are closed source, is there even 1 (ONE) LLM which is both open source and open weights and publishes its training data and methodology and is also remotely competitive with the frontier lab LLMs?

Consoles are closed source. Appliances are closed source. Embedded devices are closed source.

Even the web is basically closed source. Blobs of encrypted, obfuscated JS used to serve news pages (!).

Maybe I'm looking in the wrong places, but closed source has won.

[–] lilbigdoot 3 days ago
What are all those mobile devices and servers running on?
[–] oblio 3 days ago
If you think I've been on HN for more than a decade and I don't know what Android is, you're sorely mistaken. And if you think you somehow managed to reply to my comment with a "gotcha", you go digging into what Android really is made of and get back to me.

And regarding servers, who cares? The platforms users interact with are their clients and the actual server software on top of the Linux OS is closed source 99% of the time.

Don't post lazy comments.

[–] FartyMcFarter 4 days ago
> Are we actually seeing a push towards being 100percent dependent on the cloud?

[Hanlon's Razor] This is such a contrived performance drop scenario that I find it hard to believe it was done with the purpose you're inferring.

I'd interpret this as Nvidia not caring that much about Linux desktops/laptops once again (as opposed to Windows desktops/laptops), rather than anything to do with local vs cloud.

[–] keybrd-intrrpt 3 days ago
> I'd interpret this as Nvidia not caring that much about Linux desktops/laptops once again

Even that argument is weak - the DGX Spark is Linux, and the RTX Spark is practically the same exact chip.

Sorry to remind people of HN, but most of the consumer market still runs Windows. This was a joint project to have a consumer-level Windows-on-ARM machine, likely requiring lots of development efforts from both NVIDIA and Microsoft.

So, for these specific laptops, they put 100% of their attention for it to be on Windows for launch to capture as much market mindshare as they can. Local AI, Graphics and creative work, and some gaming.

I doubt Microsoft would have been happy about NVIDIA having Linux on their laptop right at launch.

Market Share by OS for consumer laptops & desktops:

• Windows: 76.65%

• OS X / macOS (Combined): ~15.67% (OS X at 9.86% + macOS at 5.81% due to user-agent reporting quirks)

• Linux: 5.63%

• Chrome OS: 2.04%

[–] duskdozer 4 days ago
Yes? How is this at all surprising given....everything we've seen tech companies push for for years and years? People are fully embedding themselves and their workflows in the services of big, closed companies, and are going to be surprised when they finally feel able to clamp down? There has been warning sign after warning sign, but people are only increasing their dependence.
[–] pantalaimon 3 days ago
That sounds more like the issue is a missing driver, the core does not reach the 2 GHz as it does on Windows but is stuck at 780 MHz
[–] joshspankit 4 days ago
Remember this is the same company that stopped GTX/RTX users from hardware encoding more than 2 video streams at the same time
[–] tranceylc 4 days ago
What are the implications of this?
[–] pbasista 3 days ago
I would assume that they alienated their existing customers and put off their potential customers.
[–] 4ggr0 3 days ago
not sure if the majority of customers buying gaming GPUs cares about concurrent video streams...
[–] buggeryorkshire 3 days ago
Plenty of people like myself who have a PC as an NVR running Frigate or similar to record multiple CCTV cameras.
[–] rkozik1989 4 days ago
Yes, we are, the amount of data centers being built doesn't make sense for long-term model improvements. They are definitely planning on licensing us terminals to use instead of our own PCs at the very least as a backup plan if the frontier companies fail and have assets liquidated.
[–] phoghed 4 days ago
> They are definitely planning

Who exactly?

[–] smolder 3 days ago
Well, Sam Altman. He thinks that DRAM in personal computers is wasted and would be better used by AIs that people pay rent to access.

Beyond him, I would bet most of his bilderberg group friends agree. E.g. Peter Thiel, the owner of JD Vance.

[–] nonethewiser 3 days ago
>Wtf. Are we actually seeing a push towards being 100percent dependent on the cloud?

This is a linux driver problem. On laptops designed for windows.

Read the article and stop sensationalizing.

This is a problem on the MSI Prestige laptop using the RTX Spark platform and Linux. Lets assume it also applies to the Asus and Dell machines using RTX spark and Linux.

RTX Spark is a new platform and all of these laptops ship with Windows. You cant get Linux on any of these machines from the factory. NVIDIA may even ship drivers for linux later as they did with Dynamic Boost.

Kindly remove this from your list of "Evidence that NVIDIA is Colluding to Centralize Inference" and everyone else take note of this confirmation bias in action.

[–] advael 3 days ago
I dunno about colluding to centralize inference, but "we encrypted the power firmware and only gave microsoft the keys" certainly reads as colluding to keep people on windows artificially
[–] prcrstntr 3 days ago
Nvidia probably encrypts firmware to protect IP rather than to block Linux users; maintaining open drivers across platforms is expensive, and they’ve historically prioritized Linux for datacenter
[–] rcxdude 3 days ago
This kind of thing is far better at locking down the average user than preventing competitors from reverse engineering what they're doing. (much like DRM is pretty good at stopping your average consumer from doing what they want with their media but pretty bad at stopping the pirates getting access to the same content).
[–] advael 3 days ago
Protecting IP is an excuse given for all manner of computer-aided fuckery, certainly
[–] nomel 3 days ago
Power per compute is ludicrously important to data centers. This isn't some small IP, it's a potential market differentiator.

edit: even more important for mobile computers

[–] advael 3 days ago
Yes, it seems a lot of companies can make a lot of money from fuckery like controlling what their customers can do with the devices they sell and deliberately sabotaging those devices for some customers via this control. What's your point? Am I supposed to support any practice a company can find a way to make money off of? Generally speaking I'm more against fuckery that's profitable for a company than fuckery that isn't, because the latter is at least likely to stop naturally
[–] nomel 3 days ago
> What's your point?

That them trying to protect IP around something very profitable isn't crazy. That not being fully supported in Linux, when the product was literally designed around Windows, also isn't crazy or really evidence of anything, including evil (see the whole fucking history of Linux compatibility of made-for-Windows hardware).

Maybe let them cook.

[–] Peaches4Rent 3 days ago
Boo hoo. The biggest, most leather jacketest company in the world decides it can't maintain a Linux firmware. The same thing it's entire server system depends on. Omg why would that be??

It obviously can't be because of ulterior motives!

[–] saidnooneever 3 days ago
not being able to read something which is encrypted is not a driver problem. do u expect the driver to crack the encryption? or guess the key?

nvidia has always been crap like this. Look at amd and intel, they let u write proper drivers (even if its real difficult to do so). No encrypted blobs or voodoo needed.

the nvidia drivers u need to use a card on Linux are unintelligible binary blobs. thats sad as it is. this is worse. they might give some shitty blobs at some point, after they made enough ppl give up on it and switch to give them and their partners their money, souls and firstborn

[–] shevy-java 3 days ago
Where do you see "sensationalizing"? His analysis is very right: these companies prioritize windows over linux. That's a factual statement. Same with the collusion. This is a de-facto cartel.
[–] ErroneousBosh 3 days ago
> This is a problem on the MSI Prestige laptop using the RTX Spark platform and Linux. Lets assume it also applies to the Asus and Dell machines using RTX spark and Linux.

Is the problem one that could be easily countered by assuming that laptops are generally better when they're not on fire?

[–] Matl 3 days ago
> This is a linux driver problem. On laptops designed for windows.

No. It's 'the NVidia way or the highway' problem. NVidia is so full of themselves they refuse to work under anyone's rules (i.e. the Linux kernel where they're constantly trying to work around them).

They're egomaniacs who are so full of themselves, riding high on the AI bubble, they think they're above everyone else in the ecosystem, while utilising all kinds of other people's work for their own benefit.

Look at the way they develop their 'open' Linux drivers where it's just a shim that loads a huge binary blob off the GPU rather than a proper driver like amdgpu has.

Meanwhile they wouldn't be a $5T company without Linux and the wider FLOSS ecosystem.

It's kind of like when Secure Boot debuted and the plan was to allow only Windows with it enabled, then no doubt someone would claim the fact that only Windows can boot with it enabled as a 'Linux driver problem'.

[–] Fr0styMatt88 3 days ago
To be fair the headline is egregiously sensationalist.
[–] mywittyname 3 days ago
> This is a linux driver problem.

Claude, make a driver that runs at full capacity on my laptop. (make no mistakes).

[–] alexgoodhart 3 days ago
NVIDIA spends tens of kindly billions to *not* give their own kindly products kindly pride of kindly place
[–] user01237123674 3 days ago
To be honest, your comment is a perfect demonstration of how big corporations control public opinion by instrumentalizing people like you. Unless, of course, you work for NVIDIA.
[–] jhowards 3 days ago
How dare they not be outraged!!
[–] terabyterex 4 days ago
no nvidia wants you buying hardware to run local. the issue here is that the RTX spark was designed for windows.
[–] Roark66 3 days ago
Yes, and they want you to remortgage your house to pay for it.
[–] lp92 2 days ago
This is like any other driver compatibility problem with Linux. There's tons of laptops that don't have WiFi support out of the box on Linux for example.
[–] f6v 4 days ago
> Build and maintain sovereign AI while you still can.

As in, make your own inference and training hardware?

[–] embedding-shape 4 days ago
No, when people talk about building software they tend to mean building software. Just like "putting together my own training hardware" doesn't imply you're creating your own wafers from sand.
[–] f6v 4 days ago
But the original post was about a hardware vendor getting in the way. It's pointless to talk about "sovereign AI" when all you do is run GLM on Nvidia.
[–] lcampbell 3 days ago
To make an apple pie from scratch, you must first invent the universe.

Sovereign AI is less about being able to build it from first principles and more about being able to tinker and modify what already exists. I can’t train a 30B model, but I can modify the weights of one. I can’t fab my own chips, but I can putter with the software that interfaces with them.

Sovereignty is lost when encryption hides your toys and attestation tells you “you may not”.

[–] f6v 3 days ago
Look, China has sovereign AI because they can train on Huawei GPUs.

Estonian only has sovereign AI as long as they’re allowed to buy from Nvidia. Oh wait, they’re already restricted in what they can get.

[–] embedding-shape 2 days ago
> Look, China has sovereign AI because they can train on Huawei GPUs.

But those servers most likely use CPUs not made in China, if I were to hazard a guess, doesn't that mean that that AI isn't "truly sovereign" in your mind then?

[–] lp92 1 day ago
For now that's the case. But the Chinese government is really pushing for their companies to use local hardware.
[–] hoppp 4 days ago
Yes, in everything.

I stopped using my laptop for dev and switched to talking to claude code on my phone and as you can imagine I am faster at producing code.

100% cloud with a single entry point device to manage dedicated servers + agents

[–] hsuduebc2 4 days ago
This is classical move from Nvidia. They are doing similiar bullshits on their GPUs for decades. I'm very much looking forwars for their competition to rise.
[–] itsmeduncan 3 days ago
This isn't as hyperbolic as people think. This is a continuation of the centralized control of data + products. Not having sovereign AI is just enabling the enshiftification of the next innovation. We let ads win, we let data mining/centralization win... can we not let 3p AI win?