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points by rmah 1 day ago | 0 comments

There are always bears who are predicting the next stock market crash. They always have various reasons that make sense on the surface. They're almost always wrong. But they're always eventually right.

[–] CoolestBeans 1 day ago

When it comes to finance and fashion there's no difference between being early and being wrong.

[–] ghtbircshotbe 18 hours ago

Maybe that's true if you sell too early, but if you buy too early then wait you'll generally do okay

[–] illiac786 5 hours ago

What is “buying too early”? Is that even a thing?

[–] howunfortunate 1 day ago

> But they're always eventually right.

Can you really call it "right" if the market goes up 40% before eventually going down 15%?

[–] chii 1 day ago

This is why you don't rely on broken clocks to tell you the time!

[–] 0xDEAFBEAD 21 hours ago

Down 15%... so far

[–] estetlinus 1 day ago

Are you implying the market will go up ad infinitum?

[–] bdamm 1 day ago

The "race to the bottom" (to devalue fiat currency and drive inflation) is a big reason why stocks, gold, real estate, and bitcoin are valuable to hold. The market will definitely go up ad infinitum, since that is the policy of all central banks.

[–] dd8601fn 1 day ago

It’s just a take on the old, “They predicted twelve of the last three crashes.”

If you can’t act on predictions they’re not meaningful.

[–] ngruhn 1 day ago

or picking the guy with the right prediction is not much easier than making correct predictions

[–] solyin 1 day ago

In the AI era, you just spin up 1024 bots making substack posts prophetizing the future. That's ten binary predictions. Delete the 1023 that fail. Keep the one account that perfectly "predicted" the future.

[–] estetlinus 2 hours ago

I rather have one extreme win than 100 smol wins that get evaporated once the market crashes. There’s an expression that goes ”Eating like a chicken, shitting like an elephant”. That’s the beauty of puts.

[–] xrisk 1 day ago

The derivatives market wouldn’t exist if there wasn’t a legitimate economic need to insure against unexpected crashes. Aka it’s not just bear speculation; crashes happen all the time in markets around the world.

[–] paulpauper 1 day ago

Even the Covid crash, as bad as it was, was over in a month. Stocks rocketed to new highs faster than anyone could have ever anticipated.

[–] leonidasrup 1 day ago

This stock recovery was so fast because of an external factor, governments injected money into economy, but the price was inflation.

" Fiscal stimulus during the pandemic contributed to an increase in inflation of about 2.6 percentage points. "

https://reason.com/2023/02/02/covid-stimulus-spending-played...

[–] charlieyu1 6 hours ago

It is also inflation this time. Inflation hasn’t slowed down for a few years now