Hacker News

points by howunfortunate 1 day ago | 0 comments

> But they're always eventually right.

Can you really call it "right" if the market goes up 40% before eventually going down 15%?

[–] chii 1 day ago

This is why you don't rely on broken clocks to tell you the time!

[–] 0xDEAFBEAD 20 hours ago

Down 15%... so far

[–] estetlinus 1 day ago

Are you implying the market will go up ad infinitum?

[–] bdamm 1 day ago

The "race to the bottom" (to devalue fiat currency and drive inflation) is a big reason why stocks, gold, real estate, and bitcoin are valuable to hold. The market will definitely go up ad infinitum, since that is the policy of all central banks.

[–] dd8601fn 1 day ago

It’s just a take on the old, “They predicted twelve of the last three crashes.”

If you can’t act on predictions they’re not meaningful.

[–] ngruhn 1 day ago

or picking the guy with the right prediction is not much easier than making correct predictions

[–] solyin 1 day ago

In the AI era, you just spin up 1024 bots making substack posts prophetizing the future. That's ten binary predictions. Delete the 1023 that fail. Keep the one account that perfectly "predicted" the future.