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points by dd8601fn 1 day ago | 0 comments

It’s just a take on the old, “They predicted twelve of the last three crashes.”

If you can’t act on predictions they’re not meaningful.

or picking the guy with the right prediction is not much easier than making correct predictions

In the AI era, you just spin up 1024 bots making substack posts prophetizing the future. That's ten binary predictions. Delete the 1023 that fail. Keep the one account that perfectly "predicted" the future.

[–] estetlinus 59 minutes ago

I rather have one extreme win than 100 smol wins that get evaporated once the market crashes. There’s an expression that goes ”Eating like a chicken, shitting like an elephant”. That’s the beauty of puts.