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points by Incipient 5 hours ago | 0 comments

I would say I used to believe how the models would scale, now I'm a bit more skeptical. I would be incredibly surprised if oai, anthropic, etc hadn't at least TRIED this yet. They have the compute to do it. They're either sitting on it and saving it for a rainy day, or there is something wrong with it.

[–] flatline 4 hours ago

We know nothing about their internal models that, for instance, produced revolutionary results in mathematics. The public no longer gets to see what’s at the frontier, and we may never see much of it. Also, the cost to train these is immense. China literally does not have enough chips in circulation to compete. I’m not sure where US lab capabilities tap out but I suspect they are at least partly bound by GPU production as well at this point.

[–] octoberfranklin 4 hours ago

We know that if this immense cost had in fact been spent, and the internal models really were that revolutionary, these companies would be selling access to it for cash instead of taking on mountains of debt.

We definitely know that.

[–] flatline 3 hours ago

I agree they would not shut up about it if they had something to reveal, so we probably have a semi-accurate vision of the capabilities if not the implementation details.