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points by lxgr 18 hours ago | 0 comments
> If all of this money went into the capital markets instead [...]

Money is neither created nor destroyed in prediction markets. (In most cases, the collateral goes into boring money market fund like fixed-income products, as far as I understand.)

The real concern here is that, for many people, paid employment simply doesn't look like a viable way to earn a living anymore, so they feel the need to play high-risk, high-reward games in the first place. Capital markets are a great way to preserve and modestly grow one's wealth. If there's no reasonable perspective of any wealth in the first place, is it any wonder that people are looking beyond?

In other words: If your job is at most paying half of what you need to lead the life you want to live (and that, in many cases, your parents have been able to afford working the same job just fine), suddenly betting on a game that pays double or nothing doesn't seem so irrational anymore.

[–] garciasn 18 hours ago
> The real concern here is that, for many people, paid employment simply doesn't look like a viable way to earn a living anymore, so they feel the need to play high-risk, high-reward games in the first place.

This cannot possibly be the motivation; gambling is very rarely a worthwhile investment.

Manipulation through advertising, mobile app behavior alteration, and ease of access are the sole motivators here.

[–] cyanydeez 17 hours ago
Gambling addition is a addiction. No one who has it is rational. Same way drugs is an addiction, people who are on drugs are rarely thinking rational.

And why would they when there's very few options to begin with.

I dont get what you think is happening when people gamble or take drugs. Rarely is the reason rational and sober.

[–] mandeepj 17 hours ago
You referred the line about “capital markets”, but made a comment about prediction markets
[–] lxgr 17 hours ago
So does the quoted text, no? It contrasts the two.
[–] watwut 16 hours ago
> people, paid employment simply doesn't look like a viable way to earn a living anymore, so they feel the need to play high-risk, high-reward games in the first place.

The odds are such that they loose. Gamblers end up with less money. These people are addicts solving their emotional problem at high financial cost and debt.

> suddenly betting on a game that pays double or nothing doesn't seem so irrational anymore.

It is as irrational as in any other situation. And odds are not double or nothing. That would simply made betting pointless