points by lelanthran 1 day ago | 0 comments
> The main difference being hardware companies are making huge amounts of money and cannot keep up with production due to excess of demand compared to supply.
You're describing exactly what happened during the dot-com crash and calling it different. Sun, Cisco, etc literally could not keep up with demand pre-crash, and yet they still tanked (Sun tanked enough to go under, Cisco took another 17 years to recover).
I mean, you're calling it a main difference, but describing exactly the same thing.
I don’t need a rack of Cisco routers on my desk. I’d happily take a Sun workstation loaded with GPUs though.
The only real question that will come out of this is whether we buy the hardware directly or rent the hardware from Anthropic/OpenAI etc. no doubt we’re seeing the winners and losers get sorted out right now, and the strategy of doing the growth behind the scenes and then doing IPO (instead of IPO on no revenue as in the dotcom era) is proving to be yet another stumbling block. Valuations can come down as much as they need to but the AI genie has been freed now, regardless of how the market is choosing to price it.
Nasdaq will be higher in 12 months than it is today. Democrats or no democrats, no politician is going to vote to crush the primary driver of revenue growth in the S&P. Pooh Pooh it all you like.