points by glimshe 1 day ago | 0 comments
We should permanently rename "prediction markets" to "betting markets".
People linked to them came up with the "prediction" nonsense to sound modern and technological as a way to dissociate themselves from the life/family destroying gambling of old.
But they are gambling, pure and simple, with no value to society.
[–] avaer 1 day ago
[–] gruez 1 day ago
>If you are making money (i.e. beating the "house") you are by definition laundering information, and profiting off of deniability. Everyone who isn't doing this is the sucker losing money on a betting market.
???
There's no allowance for skill? Even in financial markets, there's no reason to believe why people who continually beat the market must be insider trading. That's not the same as saying that people should be day trading, but that doesn't mean the reverse is true.
[–] conorcleary 22 hours ago
Even Burry wants more than a one year time horizon.
If you are making money (i.e. beating the "house") you are by definition laundering information, and profiting off of deniability. Everyone who isn't doing this is the sucker losing money on a betting market.
The funny thing is these companies want to be considered information laundries, because that's what serves the real customer (politicians, celebrities, etc). The people "betting" (i.e. losing) are the product.