for personal use I'd go with NixOS. NixOS "Unstable" is both pretty reliable and receives latest feature updates a lot faster than stable branches. Nix is simply the fastest to iterate with, for me personally, and having a VM or a Docker image declared right in my flake is something I love.

for something more serious than a personal project, I'd go with Debian because of their vast free support windows and some incredible companies providing extended support