There's not enough ad money? What? lol. there will always be ad money as long as a click costs below my profit. Every single one of those companies you listed was excluded from the Ad system of the ones before it. They built their own.

For sure, models definitely depreciate but so does CapEx. but you don't include CapEx, you have an amortization schedule over it's useful lifetime. However, when you start mixing CapEx and model depreciation, you get an interesting curve. As CapEx increases, model development is spread across multiple generations across that same CapEx. So, assuming you've amortized your CapEx, successive model generation eventually has a horizontal assimtote at OpEx and depreciation.

The real question is "Are frontier training costs growing faster than the productive lifetime value of the GPU infrastructure used to create those models?" Which is a hard question to answer and is something we'll find out it early 2030.

Also, Anthropic is known to lie through their teeth to make themselves look better, so any claims that they make a profit on inference should be treated as false until proven otherwise.

Any “non-GAAP” measure of “profit” should generally be viewed with a giant red flag.

In nearly all cases these metrics just say “if you ignore all the reasons why we’re horribly unprofitable, we’re profitable.” WeWork’s “community adjusted EBITDA” was a textbook example of this.