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points by rvz 1 day ago | 0 comments

Still overvalued.

Same thing I was going to type! I think they’re just testing these to see the reaction. Like a reverse auction while OpenAI watches in terror.

I want to see this go out at $800b. I do not believe even $1T will be supported by public markets unless they shrink the float — but that also comes with its own risks.

[–] iAMkenough 1 day ago

I’m angling for it to go out at $250b.

[–] cmiles8 1 day ago

Most finance people I’m talking to think $200-400B is a fair price. That would be an amazing story in any normal situation but a total disaster here. However sane fundamental financials just don’t support a higher number.

Challenge is while you can play games with the float size to jack up the price as existing shareholders start selling you have to convince more and more people of a sky high price when all the fundamentals and the market pulling things in the opposite direction. Employees have been royally $&@ked in prior IPOs as that story plays out.

[–] anxman 1 day ago

$250b would imply the company has a $110b enterprise value. Anthropic has $140b on its balance sheet already.

[–] bitmasher9 1 day ago

At $250b it would be an acquisition target.

[–] iAMkenough 1 day ago

I think that’d be appropriate.