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points by paxy 1 day ago | 0 comments

The problem is that transition would require a ~95% drop in stock price, and the company isn't going to survive that.

GM - $74.5B market cap (6.2M cars sold annually)

Ford - $50.2B (4.6M)

Volkswagen - $40B (9M)

BYD - $100B (4.6M)

Toyota - $256B (11.3M)

Hyundai - $57B (7.3M)

Tesla - $1.4T (1.6M)

The numbers simply don't add up.

[–] pjc50 1 day ago

A stock drop does not in and of itself kill a company which has positive cashflow, although it may give the executives heart attacks and leave it vulnerable to takeover.

[–] marcosdumay 1 day ago

If the company keeps the startup structure of paying employees in stock options and growing by VC money into the several billions value, yes a stock drop can kill it in and of itself.

[–] iknowstuff 1 day ago

1. compare debt, tesla is cash rich while old OEMs are saddled with debt

2. compare growth opportunities, ie https://www.tesla.com/robotaxi - rollout is going well, and every cybercab produced nets what ? $25k/year? $75k/year? vs $5-8k once per car sold?

[–] abustamam 1 day ago

I don't like Musk, but this is the correct answer. So many people are trying to fit Tesla into the old OEM box but they are not a car company. They are a technology company that sells cars.

I don't know if robotaxi will take off, but if it does, it massively undercuts Waymo because the vehicles are just so much cheaper to make and are made in house.

[–] FabHK 22 hours ago

Just like WeWork is not a real estate company, but a technology company that does real estate. They had nearly $0.5m net income in 2016, but presumably the future is bright.

[–] abustamam 5 hours ago

Well sure, two things can be true though. I don't know much about the rise and fall of WeWork (I honestly didn't even think they were still around or relevant) but a fleet of inexpensive autonomous taxis in markets that have pricey uber fares seems like an incredible growth opportunity

[–] nutjob2 1 day ago

Telsa/Musk is a cult of personality. SpaceX's valuation makes no sense either.

On that basis if Musk overdoses on ketamine or something then 95% devaluation may well happen.