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points by Terr_ 2 days ago | 0 comments

I worry we're heading into a bit of post hoc ergo propter hoc here.

Election results may have been the last straw, but not all the straws.

Stock market reporting is always pretty funny. "Stocks went up because the Democrats won!" "Stocks went down because the democrats won!"

I think it's just a chaotic system and, apart from extreme events, it's impossible to know what the actual reasons for most movements are.

[–] karmakurtisaani 1 day ago

> Stock market reporting is always pretty funny. "Stocks went up because the Democrats won!" "Stocks went down because the democrats won!"

Both of these can be true. The reporting is just capturing the sentiment driving the market. There might be a relief rally that things will stabilize now, followed by a panic that data centers will not be built according to the expected schedule.

[–] graemep 1 day ago

There is a reason price changes are often modelled as a random walk for valuation and risk models.