points by omilu 5 days ago | 0 comments
Because you can easily collude and cheat at poker so it needs to be heavily regulated or outright illegal to prevent theft. You can't really cheat at prediction markets, unless you have insider information which they can litigate after the fact.
[–] drugstorecowboy 3 days ago
How can you collude and cheat at poker? If there are 4 people playing, and 3 of them "collude", its litterally no different than one person just playing 3 hands at once which shouldn't make any difference. The fact that you would win more hands is offset by the big losses you would take when the 4th person wins.
[–] foltik 3 days ago
The edge comes from seeing more cards. That gives you better information than your opponent about who's ahead, meaning both your raises and folds have higher EV than theirs.
[–] drugstorecowboy 3 days ago
Oh thank you I hadn't considered that. After commenting I realized that I had never seen anyone play multiple hands. This is why.
[–] JumpCrisscross 5 days ago
> You can't really cheat at prediction markets
Lots of folks gripe about how Kalshi adjudicates contracts.
[–] cowlevel 4 days ago
The one I remember is from Polymatket, about whether Trump would end the Gaza war by a certain date. I bet no, and it resolved to yes on the basis that Trump said that he ended the war.
[–] mcmcmc 5 days ago