Hacker News

points by parthdesai 5 days ago | 0 comments

> They are putting a financial incentive behind accurately predicting the future, which makes these apps basically the most accurate predictor of the future. Available to anyone to view, for free.

Here, let me predict a future where someone will die. On the other side, let me pay for a hit on the same person. /s

^It's a bit extreme and exaggerated, but it's like that on purpose to make a point.

[–] a13n 5 days ago

markets on people dying are not allowed for this exact reason

[–] mrbombastic 4 days ago

are hackers really this bad at thinking of edge cases and unintended outcomes, I thought that was like half our job. markets on dying are just the most obvious one. how about how many wildfires there will be this year? https://krcrtv.com/news/local/gallagher-joins-bipartisan-bil... Or the results of clinical trials? https://www.npr.org/2026/08/07/nx-s1-5922530/patients-bettin... Or when we will invade a country? https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-clas...

[–] parthdesai 5 days ago

Google is your friend lol - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/18/polymarket-gam...